LorieByrd.com

16 Years Today

Happy Anniversary to my husband of 16 years! 

The Number One Reason John McCain Should be President

Here is an excerpt from my column at Townhall today:

Recently on a talk radio show, the guest, a Democrat, said there was little difference in policy between John McCain and the two Democrats running for President.  Many of those calling in agreed.  Considering McCain’s recent comments on global climate change and his position on some other issues I can understand why some might have that impression. 

If voters are convinced there would not be much difference in policy between a McCain and an Obama presidency, it is likely the majority will go for the young, charismatic candidate who would make history as the first black President.  If they vote for Obama thinking he would be the same on policy as John McCain, though, they will be making a big mistake.

On some of the most important issues the country faces there are huge differences.  On one issue in particular, national defense, McCain has demonstrated that he is the only candidate of the three we can afford to have as President at this time.

The comment that struck a nerve (to say the least)

President Bush made some comments that really offended Barack Obama and his supporters. The President was at the Israeli Knesset celebrating the State of Israel's 60th birthday.

There are good and decent people who cannot fathom the darkness in these men and try to explain their words away. This is natural. But it is deadly wrong. As witnesses to evil in the past, we carry a solemn responsibility to take these words seriously. Jews and Americans have seen the consequences of disregarding the words of leaders who espouse hatred. And that is a mistake the world must not repeat in the 21st century.

Some seem to believe we should negotiate with terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: "Lord, if only I could have talked to Hitler, all of this might have been avoided." We have an obligation to call this what it is - the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history.

Sister Toldjah has a great post on the fallout and Rick Moran provides must read commentary.

This is pro-forma stuff when it comes to an American president speaking in Israel, hardly headline grabbing fodder for the wires. Except Bush added a little something extra - a necessary warning given we have a putative candidate for president whose ideas about diplomacy include sitting down with Syria and Iran "without preconditions" and talk about peace in the Middle East.

It does no good to try and deny Obama said this and meant it. It was not taken out context, twisted, distorted, or otherwise folded, spindled, or mutilated in any way. If the candidate wants to change his position that's fine. He can say he made a mistake, that he realizes now he should probably have thought that answer to the debate question through a little more.

But no. Obama insists he never said what he obviously said - in other words, either a man divorced from reality or a bald faced liar. And of course, his worshipful sycophants on the left have bought into this ludicrousness.

Sister Toldjah and Moran both point out the ludicrous "fake outrage" from those on the left complaining that the President made his comments on foreign soil. Unfreakingbelievable. If they had not lapped up the vile garbage Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, John Kerry and others have spewed about this President on foreign soil they might have a shred of credibility. Are they really this stupid or do they just play that way on t.v.? As long as their followers don't catch on I guess they can say all the outrageous and stupid things they want. It doesn't appear that anyone in the MSM is going to call them on it.

As Sister Toldjah put it:

I don't know what's worse: The mediots being completely in the tank for this guy, the fact that nearly half the electorate has been hoodwinked by his charm and engaging style, or that the man himself is either a) willfully ignorant of the truth and along with that routinely and intentionally tries to mislead the American people about 75% of the time he is speaking, or b) really doesn't know any better when he opens his mouth.

Once upon a time I'd have selected "b" - but knowing what we know now about Barack Obama, and how he'll say anything in order to win over the hearts and minds of the American electorate, I have no hesitation in selecting "a." He can't possibly be that dense to not know that so much of what he says on the campaign trail is either a gross misrepresentation of the truth or a flat out lie. Rather, he just counts on many of his supporters being stuck on stupid. And so far on that front, unfortunately, he's been right on the money.

This is cross-posted at Wizbang.

The Next Right

Beth at My Vast Right Wing Conspiracy explains why The Next Right, the latest effort by Patrick Ruffini, Jon Henke and Soren Dayton, is something conservatives should get excited about.  Patrick Ruffini explains what the project hopes to accomplish.

If you’re looking for pure-play opinion and link bait on sundry topics from Ann Coulter to Jimmy Carter/Hamas, you won’t find it here. What you will find is in-depth (often unabashedly technical) writing about the election, the polls, the strategy, and the issues. Our analysis will track truth and stay true to the numbers. But it will self-consciously serve a greater purpose — educating YOU to be your own political strategist and start doing something — whether that’s blogging about your local Congressional race or Democratic corruption in your state, organizing fundraising drives, and maybe even managing races or running for office yourself. Only a revival of civic engagement at the grassroots level will create a conservative future we want: one that is pork-free and robust in the defense of our country and its values. We can’t call a switchboard and wait for Washington to fix the mess. We have to do it ourselves, from the ground up, in every state.
[...]
We don’t think this alone will solve the activism gap. Anyone who tells you that they alone have the answer is fooling you. This is not “the Daily Kos of the right.” What we’re hoping to do is create momentum and an intellectual framework for action — because action ultimately starts with narratives and ideas. We want grassroots conservatives and libertarians to start believing that they can make a difference again — a sense all too many have lost. Only you – and not some well-funded 527 — can bring the movement into the future. Only when grassroots conservative have a direct stake in the future of the party are we effective. The Next Right is about creating a vision for a 21st century Republican Party and conservative movement.

Check it out and join the movement.

Lovely

Jenna made a lovely bride.

Update:  Jim Hoft gets it right -- Kos is sick.  If there was ever a blog post to show the true colors of the extreme left blogosphere, the Daily Kos coverage of Jenna Bush's wedding is it.

Great NC Election Coverage

Since I am working for a candidate, I have not had time to blog about the election here in North Carolina.  It is really, really strange to be in the middle of the action for the first time in my lifetime and not be able to blog about it.  I am very jealous of Sister Toldjah who has been doing some great first hand reporting.  She blogged about the fainting Obama fan in a previous post and now she has a great report from a Hillary rally.   Be sure to check in frequently to see what ST has to say -- she is doing some incredible blogging.

For those who would like some local NC blog coverage of the primary, here are a few other blogs that are covering the race:

News & Observer Under the Dome blog (N&O reporters' blog)

Charlotte Observer Politics section

Public Policy Polling blog (Democrat polling company)

Katy's Conservative Corner (Raleigh blogger)

Joe Guarino (Greensboro blogger)

The Locker Room (John Locke blog)

The Meck Deck (John Locke's Charlotte blog)

Isaac Hunter's Tavern (NC Public Radio blog)

Decision 2008 (Greensboro News-Record blog)

Election Projection.com

Sister Toldjah Captures Obama Faint in NC

Fellow NC blogger (and friend) Sister Toldjah got her golden ticket to OBAMANIA in Charlotte and was even able to witness firsthand that Obama phenomenon -- the follower faint. And she got it on film. ST has been doing some amazing blogging on the presidential race, both from afar, and now here focused on Tuesday's NC primary.

The Best Laugh All Week

I can't thank John Hawkins enough for sharing his metrosexual day with his Right Wing News audience.  I don't know if it is because I know John and could visualize the story as I read it, but I was definitely laughing out loud.

An Interesting Tuesday Indeed -- Is Hillary Pulling Ahead in NC?

All along we have been hearing that the Obama-Clinton race in North Carolina is not going to be close -- that Barack Obama holds a comfortable lead here. That is what the polls have been showing. Then things started to tighten, as would be expected. Now one poll is even showing Clinton in the lead.  All other polls I've seen, though, are still showing Obama ahead -- some more comfortably than others. 

What an amazing election season this has turned out to be. We may all get to see a brokered convention -- with 24 hour cable news and blog coverage, no less. For the first time in my adult life, North Carolina matters in a presidential primary. We've gotten visits from the candidates and their spouses and their kids, we got an incredible amount of media attention last week over the NC GOP ad featuring Jeremiah Wright, and now it looks like we might even get to see a pretty decent contest here to boot. Nothing could be finer than to be in Carolina next Tuesday.

Great Wright Coverage

Betsy Newmark has been doing some excellent blogging on the Obama-Wright story.   Betsy's commentary is smart and insightful.  Even if you think you know all there is to know about this story, check out Betsy's post.  You will most likely find something you haven't seen or thought of yet.

NC is Finally a Player

Seeing a presidential campaign up close and personal has been really interesting and things are only going to get more so between now and May 6th. For more on that see my column at Townhall this week, NC is Finally A Player.

Why Americans aren't loving the recent Iraq films

I have found it extremely hard to blog lately between doing some work for a candidate here in NC and tending to my kids.  My youngest just had her eleventh (or twelfth, I've lost count) surgery and we are still recovering from that.  Anytime I decide to take ten minutes to write a blog post I typically end up spending several hours online reading other blogs, reading comments, etc., so lately I have just had to say "no" to blogging.

Every now and then I have to jump in and say a few words though. My few words this week are about a post by Sarah at Trying to Grok.  If you are not familiar with Sarah's blog, please stop by and read her.  She is funny and interesting and very candid.  The post that caught my attention this week is about the recent rash of anti-war (and some anti-troop) movies that are not doing so well at the box office.  Here is a bit of Sarah's post:

The Washington Post put out an article on why the recent crop of Iraq war movies aren't doing so well. What's their take?

    For now, Kuntz agrees with Bochco: "We're bombarded by information about [Iraq] 24 hours a day," he says. "We already know plenty about it. We don't need to learn more about it from the movies. Right now, it's something people want to forget and escape from. I speak for the American public when I say, 'What a bummer.' "

I speak for my blog when I say, "What a jackass." They go through this huge list of anti-war movies and wonder why the public isn't interested. Hmmm, let me take a stab at it: Make a movie like 300, and people will flock to the theater. Make the soldiers the freaking good guys, and you've got yourself a hit; make them rapists or dupes or Tools of the Bushitler Oil Junta, and no one wants to see your damn movie. Maybe dumb people think the Iraq war is a "bummer" because all your movies present it that way.

Follow the link above to read the rest. I'll bet if they made more movies about heroes like those on the Vets for Freedom National Heroes Tour people would come to see it.  What about a movie about Soldiers' Angels founder Patti Patton-Bader?  If a positive movie about members of the U.S. military is too much for the American film industry to swallow, there are many recent heroes from other countries like Lance Corporal Lance Croucher, a Royal Marine serving in Afghanistan who threw himself on a grenade to save the lives of his patrol.  There are plenty of stories like these that are not only interesting, but are inspiring as well.  But then they might inspire some to join the military.  That might be one reason we aren't seeing those kinds of movies about our current crop of heroes.  All it will take though is a "Passion of the Christ" type movie to break through and turn the tide.  A positive depiction of American troops in Iraq that made really big money might just inspire some copycats.  Will we ever see a "Saving Private Ryan" that takes place in Iraq?  Maybe, but if we do I am betting it will not be until George Bush has left the White House.

Crossposted at Wizbang.

Jack Bauer for President

If you are a big fan of 24 like I am, check out Jack Bauer for President: Terrorism and Politics in 24.  It is a compilation of essays "using our current political climate to enrich viewers’ experience of 24."

This book addresses how much of the show is realistic and what it has to say about modern politics and foreign policy in America’s fight against terrorism. Essays look at issues including the show’s images of terrorism, the ethics and effectiveness of the characters’ counterterrorism practices, the portrayal of government and politics on the show, whether it takes a terrorist to fight a terrorist, how much “the people” have a right to know in life-threatening circumstances, and how effective we really want our heroes to be.

More information about the  book is available at the BenBella Books website.  I was fortunate enough to be asked to write an essay which is included in the book.  The book was edited by Richard Miniter and includes a wide variety of contributors including Alan Dershowitz.  Who would have ever thought that anything I wrote would appear in the same book as something from Alan Dershowitz?   

Soldiers' Angels founder nominated for Most Inspiring Mom

From Iraq War Today:

Soldiers' Angels is recruiting all members and friends to go to America's Favorite Mom contest and vote for Patti Patton Bader. Registered members may vote once a day in the Most Inspiring Mom online contest. This contest ends March 31, 2008.

Why is it so important for Patti Patton Bader to win? The obvious reason is, she deserves it. The secondary reason is the funds go to the favorite charity of the winner, ah you guessed it, Soldiers' Angels! Also, it provides another level of public awareness for Soldiers' Angels in drawing the attention of more angels and donors.

So what are you waiting for?  Go vote!  I have not only been inspired when hearing Patti speak, but I have been moved to tears watching so many people stand up and tell their stories about what Soldiers' Angels has meant to them.  She is truly an amazing woman and Soldiers' Angels deserves all the attention it can get. 

"Peeps" Cupcakes

I got an email from a reader who found my Peeps cupcakes while searching for something to prepare for her daughter's class party.  I decided to post a picture of them again for anyone looking for a really easy Easter treat.  The ones in the top picture are from a batch I made for my daughter's class party last year and the second picture with the chicks all in a row is the batch I made last year for Easter Day.  These were really easy.  Just decorate a cupcake with green frosting, then put a marshmallow Peep on top.  We added a couple of speckled jelly beans on each side of  the Peep.  I frosted and the girls decorated.  It was not only easy, but really quick, too.

Update 2008:  I got an email from a teacher who found my post above from last year and is making the cupcakes for her class.  These are really, really easy and they look adorable.  There are Peeps bunnies available too, in many colors, so there are many possible variations.  Enjoy!

 

I got an email from a reader who found my Peeps cupcakes while searching for something to prepare for her daughter's class party.  I decided to post a picture of them again for anyone looking for a really easy Easter treat.  The ones in the top picture are from a batch I made for my daughter's class party last year and the second picture with the chicks all in a row is the batch I made last year for Easter Day.  These were really easy.  Just decorate a cupcake with green frosting, then put a marshmallow Peep on top.  We added a couple of speckled jelly beans on each side of  the Peep.  I frosted and the girls decorated.  It was not only easy, but really quick, too.

Update 2008:  I got an email from a teacher who found my post above from last year and is making the cupcakes for her class.  These are really, really easy and they look adorable.  There are Peeps bunnies available too, in many colors, so there are many possible variations.  Enjoy!

 

Four Years Ago Today

Scott Elliott of Election Projection.com lost his parents four years ago today when they were murdered in Iraq while doing mission work there.  He has a moving tribute to them posted at his blog today. I was a fan of Scott's blog before his parents were killed, but learned through their death that Scott and I are distant cousins and that he is a fellow North Carolinian. I wish I could have met his parents. I have met Scott and his wife in person a few times over the past couple of years and immediately felt at home with them. If you are not familiar with Scott's blog, Election Projection, this is the perfect time to get to know it. He has an amazing track record predicting election results and is in the middle of a 50 state breakdown of races.

Funnies

Sister Toldjah found a funny newspaper clipping.

This made me laugh out loud.

Kicking the Clintons to the Curb

My new column, Why the Democrats are Kicking the Clintons to the Curb, is now up at Townhall.  Here's a peek:

The Clinton is no longer the hip one in the race. Think about it. In Bill Clinton’s presidential primary he was up against Paul Tsongas, Tom Harkin, Bob Kerrey, and some other people I don’t even remember. In the general elections he was up against George H. W. Bush and Bob Dole. Hillary, in sharp contrast, is up against the Obamassiah who makes women swoon.

It is 16 years later and she is now the establishment candidate. What it comes down to is that even though Hillary was married to the “Man from Hope,” now she faces a candidate much better at Hope-A-Dope (as Jon Henke calls it) than she and her husband ever dreamed of being. Instead of the Man from Hope that Bill Clinton was, Hillary is in many ways just “The Man” who stands in the way of the first black President of the United States.

Update:  Charles Krauthamer has a must read column at Townhall today on Iraq.

Journeyman

I have been busy working and have gotten behind on a lot.  I just learned that Journeyman was not renewed for another season so it has effectively been cancelled by NBC.  What a disappointment.  That was one of my "must watch" shows last year.  I didn't miss an episode and thoroughly enjoyed each and every one.  I wish Sci Fi channel would take some of the money they waste on those horrible movies they make and put it into picking up Journeyman.  I don't know whether or not there are any "save that show" fan efforts as there were with Jericho.  If anyone hears of any, please let me know.

Update: Peanuts saved Jericho, can Rice-A-Roni can save Journeyman?

My Annual Valentine's Day Post

I have posted the following the past three years on Valentine's Day. My kids have graduated from Dora and Lizzie McGuire to Hannah Montana and "too old for kid Valentines," but otherwise, not much has changed. From the heart, here is my annual Valentine:

I will never see a Valentine's Day card without thinking of my grandmother -- Maw Maw to us grandkids. When my father and his sisters were cleaning out my grandmother's house after a stroke required that she move to a nursing home, they came across shoe boxes full of cards and letters. By the time I got to Charlotte, my dad said that they had already thrown away bags full of old Christmas cards, but he had taken a box of cards and letters to his house and invited me to go through them and take out any that were mine that I wanted to keep.

After my dad went to bed, I spent over an hour going through that box. As I came across cards and letters that I had written when I was in high school and college I could not hold back the tears. It was touching to me that she had held on to all of them. I doubt that she ever went back through and read them, but rather, I think she just found it impossible to throw them away. I inherited that from her. I have boxes of cards and letters that have been sent to me over the years, and have only recently begun purging them. I wish I had also inherited my grandmother's housekeeping genes. One of the reasons I was surprised she had held on to the cards and letters was because she lived in a two bedroom, one bath house that was always immaculate. I just couldn't imagine where she had the room to keep them. I guess we always find room for the things that are important to us.

I found lots of gems in that box of correspondence. Some of the most interesting cards were the ones from many, many years ago. There were postcards that had to have been from the fifties and sixties sent to her and my grandfather from vacation sites. Several were actually a little suggestive, and some of the cartoons would surely have been considered naughty, in those days, especially. The artwork on some of the old cards was just beautiful and it was impossible not to try to imagine living in the various eras the cards represented. As I sifted through the cards and letters written to my grandparents from the different periods of my life, I read things that I had long forgotten about high school and college and early in my work life.

The most interesting and moving to me, though, were the Valentine cards that she had kept. They were the small, flat children's Valentines you bought in a box of 30 or so. They were dated by their old-timey artwork featuring hearts and Cupid with bow and arrow, so unlike the shiny foil embossed Disney Princess, Dora the Explorer, Lizzie McGuire and other media-inspired Valentines I have purchased for my kids. They had been carefully placed back in their tiny square envelopes and the glue on the flaps had yellowed with age. The names of those the Valentines were "to" and "from" were obviously written by me and my cousins in our best printing with those big, fat pencils that make really thick letters. They took me back to a time in my childhood that is so long ago that the memories consist mainly of flashes of still pictures, rather than long movies in my mind, Looking through that box, though, many memories did come back, that otherwise might have been gone forever.

It was a sad time, emptying my grandmother's house, but those cards and letters, along with some old children's books that we read when we visited, and a very old Candyland board game we had played over and over again, brought back some incredibly happy memories that I will cherish forever.

Looking through that old correspondence also made me realize how rare it is that I write letters or even send cards anymore. With kids now, it is just so much easier, and cheaper, to use email. My sister is incredibly thoughtful. Over the weekend she sent not only my husband and me a funny Valentine's Day card, but sent my children cards addressed and mailed to each separately. I was doing good to buy boxes of Valentine's for my kids to address and pass out at their school parties. So consider this my Valentine's Day card.

Happy Valentine's Day.

Happy Valentine's Day

John Hawkins has created some political Valentine's Day cards.

Hannah Montana 3-D Concert Movie

This weekend I took my seven year old to see the Hannah Montana 3-D movie.  I have to admit that I enjoyed it-- in spite of the $15 ticket cost. 

The glasses were plastic and not at all flimsy and the movie didn't hurt my eyes.  It was really pretty cool. 

The concert footage was interspersed with backstage stuff, as well as with fan footage that was nothing short of adorable.  Unless you think seeing dads don high heels (most held on by duct tape) and race to win Hannah concert tickets and backstage passes is not adorable. 

The only complaint about the movie is that the crowd was pretty dead where we saw the movie.  My daughter knows all the words to the Hannah songs and jumped to her feet singing and dancing, but then quickly sat down when she noticed no one else was doing it.  (The seats were stadium style so even when she was standing up she was not blocking anyone's view.)  We went to the movie with one of her very good friends so they danced in their seats most of the movie. 

One more thing -- the previews shown before the movie included two 3-D movies that looked promising.  One was an animated movie about 3 flies that went into outer space.  The other was Journey to the Center of the Earth with Brendan Fraser.  I'll be looking out for those this summer.

Why are so many freaking out over John McCain?

In my column at Townhall I explain why so many conservatives are freaking out over the likelihood of John McCain as the GOP nominee.  Hint -- it isn't just because of his voting record.

February7.org

Patrick Ruffini is asking all Republicans to rally behind their new nominee by donating to the winner next Thursday, February 7. Ruffini is supporting Romney over McCain, but is convinced that even if McCain is the eventual winner it is of utmost importance that Republicans get behind the nominee because "a nation at war cannot afford Hillary or Obama in the White House."

Through Rightroots, Republicans can rally behind their new nominee right out of the gate by donating online next Thursday, February 7th. Go to February7.org to take the pledge to make F7 the day we stop Hillary or Obama.

Yankee or Dixie?

I scored 79% Dixie.

The Clinton Reunion Tour

A few thoughts on Clinton I and the prospect of Clinton II:

I had a feeling we would never get rid of him. When watching the inaugural ceremonies in 2001, when Bill Clinton lingered, and lingered, and lingered a bit longer, I knew that not only would he not go away, but that the media wouldn't let him. This week the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy celebrated its ten year anniversary and the woman who coined the phrase looks poised to return with Bill Clinton to the White House. Considering how reluctant they were to leave it, it is no surprise they are fighting so hard to return. What remains to be seen is whether or not the public is ready for Clinton II.

For those who have forgotten, Bill Clinton made the tackiest of departures.

He sucked up the final moments of his presidency by delivering a 1000 word speech using the words "I" or "me" 56 times and instead of a single goodbye, embarked on a full-fledged goodbye tour. I guess that's what you do when you are convinced you are a rock star. Jonah Goldberg writing at the time described the way Clinton "tried to deprive the new president the limelight" by quoting Mayor Daley. "In the past, they shook hands, the (former) president went to a helicopter, and that was it. This was different. He had a rally at the airport, a rally in New York and a rally at his home. It was really different, really unusual," Daley said. "That's his style. He wanted two or three more parties." Goldberg went on to quote Bill Clinton from the airport rally: "You see that sign there, 'Please Don't Go'? I left the White House, but I'm still here. We're not going anywhere."

Read the full column at Townhall.

Ugh

I am going to be in Jacksonville on Saturday, but hopefully will not be running into these people.

Obama gives opponents ammunition

My latest column, Obama gives opponents ammunition, is now up at Townhall.  Here's an excerpt:

In the most recent debate in New Hampshire, when he wasn’t hurting Hillary’s feelings, Barack Obama was busy giving his GOP opponents a powerful piece of ammunition.  His response to one question in particular not only displayed an ignorance of the past couple years of action in Iraq and insulted those in the U.S. military, but also gave opponents a nifty little video clip for future campaign ads.

With lower casualties in Iraq and a level of success attributed to the surge that even Jack Murtha eventually had to acknowledge, many (including me) have speculated that Iraq would not play as big a role in this presidential election as earlier thought.  Obama’s response to the question about the success of the surge made it clear that Iraq is going to continue to be a relevant issue in the current campaign and if it isn’t, Republicans might want to make it one.

Missing Marine is Dead

Not a good ending for this mystery:

JACKSONVILLE, N.C. (AP) -- A pregnant Marine missing for nearly a month is dead, and investigators were seeking a fellow Marine she had accused of sexually assaulting her, authorities said Friday. Authorities had not recovered the body of 20-year-old Lance Cpl. Maria Frances Lauterbach, but they believed she was buried in a shallow grave in a residential area of coastal Onslow County, Sheriff Ed Brown said. The suspect, 21-year-old Cpl. Cesar Armando Lauren, has declined to meet with investigators and is not in custody, he said. "They don't know where he is," Brown said of the suspect. "He's gone."

New Hampshire Election Coverage

Fox News just called New Hampshire for McCain with only 12 percent of precincts reporting. Those exit polls must be pretty definitive.

It appears the Obama-Clinton race is going to be closer than most predicted this week. Obama has been built up so much that even if Hillary loses, she could still be seen as a "comeback kid" if it is close.

Update: You can follow the results here.  The RCP blog has some interesting information in their election night thread.

Update 9:00: With 26 percent of precincts reporting Hillary leads Obama 40 - 34 percent.  I have to agree with what Ace said:

I think the Old Gal just might win. And that would make it a good night.

Think about it: She might be standing in the way of history, and of hope itself. Not Republicans. But Hillary.

And won't that be special?

Brit Hume said the exit polls showed Hillary a close second finisher and he just asked Michael Barone whether or not, based on the numbers he was seeing, Hillary could still win. Barone said it was possible.

If Hillary does win, my best guess about the discrepancy between the exit polls and actual results would not have anything to do with polling methodology. I think the frenzy that has surrounded Obama in the media the past week would be to blame. Think about it. Would you want to admit to voting for Hillary when you could claim to have voted for the rock star? Then why not go ahead and vote for him in the privacy of the voting booth? I am sure you can imagine lots of reasons for that. Unfortunately, most of us at one time or another have, for one reason or another, voted for someone we would rather not admit to having voted for. This is going to be an interesting night.

Update 9:30: 43 percent of precincts are now reporting and Hillary's lead has shrunk to two percentage points ahead of Obama.

Mary Katharine is blogging from the McCain event. She was at Romney's earlier. She said McCain was subdued. I told her he was making the longest primary speech ever. He probably wasn't, but it seemed that way and when I said that he was not finished yet.

Update (9:40 p.m.):Bill Kristol just said that the late exit polls he just recently saw show a deadheat with Clinton with a slight edge. Hillary is now up three percentage points with 47 percent of precincts reporting. So, now that the late exit polls are showing Hillary winning I guess my theory of people lying to the pollsters is wrong. I think Mary Katharine and Amanda Carpenter might have the answer to the possible Obama loss.

So, what's up with Clinton leading, huh? This election has been nothing if not humbling for pundits. Sounds like grown-up voters came home to Hillary instead of getting caught up in Obama-mania. Or, as my colleague Amanda posits: "All the young people went to the Obama victory party and were too busy drinking to vote. Kinda like a really awesome tailgate where you forget to go to the game." Heh, I know that feeling. Odd that the young people would come out in Iowa, where it's comparatively difficult to vote, and not in New Hampshire.

Update (10:10 p.m.): With 62 percent reporting, Hillary is up by three points.

The guys on Fox News are talking about John Edwards, who evidently is getting ready to speak soon. Juan Williams is talking about how angry he is. Bill Kristol said that based on the exit poll info, it looks like most Edwards voters would go to Obama (that's kinda obvious, isn't it?). I wonder how long Edwards will stick it out. He has practically lived in Iowa and New Hampshire the past four years and is finishing a very distant third tonight. I think that even if he stays in, it won't be long until his voters are going to start moving to one of the candidates that is actually going to win.

Update 10:30: Ha. After being reminded that John Edwards is taking matching funds, Bill Kristol said he should drop out because he is wasting the taxpayers' money. The pundits then talked about Elizabeth Edwards' role in deciding how long he stays in, noting that she is very passionate about politics.

Update 10:34: AP and at least one network have called the race for Hillary. Michael Barone said Fox is not calling for her yet because they are waiting for results from the college towns which could possibly still help Obama squeak out a win.

Update 10:50: Obama is conceding now. So, how did Hillary pull it out? Was it the tears? Was it because so many Independents, who can vote in either party's primary, decided to go with McCain rather than Obama? It would make sense that some thinking Obama had it in the bag, would decide to vote in what appeared to be the closer race. It would also explain the bigger than expected margin for McCain.

Update 11:05: Frank Luntz just said the results he is seeing show that independents that were going to vote for Obama switched late to vote in the Republican primary instead.

Hillary is speaking now.  She says she listened to voters and found her own voice.   

Here is what I am going to take away from tonight -- never think you have it in the bag when the polls look good and never give up when they look bad. This is going to be one heck of a long 10 months ahead of us.

Update 11:30: John Hawkins asks about John McCain -- This guy?  Really?

New Hampshire Coverage

Check out Jay Tea at Wizbang for some local reporting from New Hampshire, as well as Mary Katharine, who is blogging from there.

The Continuing Britney Saga

Dr. Phil has  taken on the challenge of rescuing Britney Spears at her family's request, but it is not clear whether or not Britney is going to go along with it .  Should we care?  I don't know.  It is just really sad.

It is a good thing the days of Britney Spears being followed by little girls was pretty much over even before the latest developments occured.  Britney has not been on top of the charts for a while now and has pretty much been replaced by new faces like Miley Cyrus and Ashley Tisdale when it comes to the pre-teen audience.  In fact, the pregnancy of Spears' sister, Jamie Lynne, who stars in Nickelodeon's popular show Zoe 101, will probably be more of a challenge for parents to explain to their young daughters than Britney's latest.  My girls are seven and eleven and when they catch any mention of Britney Spears on t.v. I think they regard her more as an adult than as the teen pop star she will probably always be in my mind. 

Just For Fun

John Edwards' hair tips.

Dems Debate the Surge

I missed the Republican debate, but am still sifting through my many emails from the candidates' representatives.  I came in on the Democrats' debate almost an hour ago.  I wasn't going to post anything on it, until I heard the comments about the "surge."   Charles Gibson told the candidates that there is real evidence that the surge in Iraq is working. (Yep, you read that right. I wrote Charles Gibson.  Of ABC News.  It shocked me, too.)  They showed a short piece about some of the improved security in Baghdad and the dramatic drop in  U.S. casualties.  He asked the candidates if they were wrong to oppose the surge.  Predictably they all said the surge is a failure because there has not been political progress made.  Obama said that much of the progress that has been made was due to agreements made between the tribes in the Anbar Province and that those were made (not because of the surge, but) because those in Iraq saw the Democrats win back the Congress in 2006 and decided they would be pulling the troops out so they had to step up.  [Update:  This portion of the transcript from the debate has been added after the jump.  The full transcript can be found HERE  Bruce Kesler noted the "stolen valor" aspect of Obama's statement at Democracy Project   Jim Hoft has the video.]  I wanted Gibson to point out that even John Murtha had admitted the surge was working, but I guess that was a bit much to wish for. 

A couple of other things...

-- Seeing Edwards and Obama team up on Hillary referring to her as the status quo was entertaining.  During that segment I wondered if Hillary forgot that the camera was on her the entire time too.  The shots of a non-smiling Hillary staring them down was not particularly attractive.

-- Hillary redeemed herself a bit when she later lightened up and answered a question about more people liking Obama by saying it hurt her feelings.  She made the point that George Bush was the candidate more people said they wanted to pal around with during previous elections (and we all know how horrible and evil that George Bush is).

Update:  I missed the GOP debate, but John Hawkins has a good roundup of the performances of each candidates.

Regarding the surge, Michelle Malkin posted a pretty devastating statement from Romney's camp which consisted of some quotes from Mike Huckabee.

    Tonight, Huckabee Accused Gov. Romney Of Not Supporting The Troop:

Huckabee Said He Supported The Surge Before Romney. "I supported the president in the war before you did. I supported the surge when you didn't." (ABC/WMUR, [Unverified Transcript], Republican Presidential Candidate Debate, Manchester, NH, 1/5/08)

    One Year Ago, Gov. Huckabee Did Not Offer His Support For The Surge:

Gov. Huckabee, January 2007: "Well, I'm Not Sure That I Support The Troop Surge." MSNBC's NORAH O'DONNELL: "We have a Rudy Giuliani, who supports the president's plan on Iraq. We have Governor Mitt Romney, who also supports a troop surge. How are you different from any of those candidates." HUCKABEE: "Well, I'm not sure that I support the troop surge, if that surge has to come from our Guard and Reserve troops, which have really been overly stretched." (MSNBC's "Live," 1/24/07)

Update II:  The portion of the transcript mentioned above follows:

Some Thoughts on Iowa -- Big Wins for Huckabee and Obama

It will be interesting to see how tonight's results from Iowa influence upcoming primaries in New Hampshire and beyond. Iowa is an expectations game. If you are expected to do well, but don't do as well as expected, you take a hit. Those who appear to be taking the big hits tonight are (obviously) Romney and Clinton. Huckabee finished stronger than expected, with an overwhelming win, but it remains to be seen how much tonight's results will help him in New Hampshire. The turnout of Christian evangelicals in Iowa estimated by some at over 60 percent tonight gave Huckabee that big win. One thing to watch for is whether the big evangelical turnout in Iowa is repeated elsewhere, and if it is, if that vote sticks with Huckabee. He is a pro-life Baptist preacher, which makes him popular with some social conservatives, but on many issues , including immigration, he is not the conservative candidate. As Huckabee comes under increased scrutiny, and is targeted by other candidates, voters will learn more about his stands on issues he is not so conservative on and that could hurt him. Romney is hurt because he put so much money and effort into Iowa and didn't come out on top. McCain is helped because he is battling Romney in New Hampshire and a win for Romney in Iowa would have given him a great boost. Instead, Romney goes into New Hampshire after taking a bit of a hit.

On the Democrat's side, Clinton should be afraid. She should be worried because Obama's strong win in Iowa, a state with no big urban voting blocks, shows that he can win in rural areas, and in areas with low numbers of minority voters. Obama should be afraid because he is now going to feel the business end of the Clinton machine. He seems like a really nice guy. I wonder if he has any clue what is in store for him.

Scott Elliott posted Iowa predictions earlier today and has a good roundup of links to others blogging about the results.   John Hawkins has an extensive round up of predictions.

Update:  Blog Power:  Amanda Carpenter filed this report about Ed Rolllin's very candid lunch conversation which she overheard.  Drudge picked it up and linked and Chris Wallace asked Rollins about it in an interview on Fox earlier tonight. That was definitely the most interesting interview of the night. Here's the video (via Jon Garthwaite at Townhall):

Update 10:40 p.m.: Huckabee is giving his victory speech (with Chuck Norris right behind him). So far the speech is funny, and at the same time eloquent, and shows the great communications skills that Huckabee exhibited in the debates and that fueled his incredible rise in the polls.

Update 10:55 p.m.: Mary Katharine had the same reaction to John Edwards' speech that I did -- including her complaint about the accent. (I have a seriously hick southern accent, but he makes me sound like Eliza Doolittle after Henry Higgins was done with her.) I know his thing is playing on fear and gloom and doom, but it seemed a bit much that he spent the beginning of his speech talking about a girl who needed a surgery who died when her insurance company didn't move quickly enough. He railed against corporate America and greed and then he talked about needing a president with a spine. It just seemed a bit odd for this kind of speech.

Obama is getting ready to give his victory speech.  I wonder if Oprah is in the house.

Update 11:20: I am so torn. It is great seeing Clinton lose, but I think Obama would be the tougher candidate to beat in the general election. The energy for Obama is incredibly high, even without the Oprah factor, and is something Republicans would have a hard time overcoming. Obama has a problem with lack of experience and he has had some "foot in mouth" problems in the past, but he has more Bill Clinton-style charm than Hillary could muster even with Bill Clinton at her side. One line in Obama's speech that jumped out at me was his comment that as president he would end the war in Iraq and bring the troops home. Typical Democrat pandering -- he obviously has not heard the recent news from Iraq. It doesn't matter though. The media is not going to question it. They aren't paying attention to anything happening in Iraq now either. Obama seems like a nice guy and his nomination (even if he didn't win the presidency) would be a hugely historic event. I think Hillary is going to have to put the attack machine in high gear to keep Obama down.

Read Carol Liebau's take here.

<strong>Update 11:50 p.m.:</strong>  Paul at <a href="http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/01/019444.php">Power Line</a> has an interesting take on tonight's results.

<a href="http://greenmountainpolitics1.blogspot.com/2008/01/congratulations-governor.html">John McCain is all smiles.</a>

Interesting.  <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/3/23545/93161/629/429564">Kos</a> posted excerpts from Richard Viguerie's email about Mike Huckabee including the following:  "Mike Huckabee's victory in the Iowa caucuses is bad news for the Republican Party. Mike Huckabee is a Christian socialist. He is a good man, but with a Big Government heart. He is the most liberal of all the Republican presidential candidates on economic issues." 

<strong>Update 12:30 a.m.:</strong>  Rush Limbaugh did a telephone interview on Fox News.  He talked about how many of the networks were talking up Huckabee and playing down Obama's historic win.  He also talked a bit about some behind the scenes exchanges with Huckabee.  Rush thinks many Democrats fear the religious right and that they would like to build Huckabee up so that they could defeat him as a representative of the movement.

Crossposted at Wizbang.

Sister Toldjah on Huckabee

Sister Toldjah has come to many of the same conclusions I have about Mike Huckabee as presidential material.

Update:  Captain Ed comments on polls saying the race for the nomination is currently a five way dead heat.

Update II:  Paul Mirengoff writes about Huckabee's imaginary friends.

Merry Christmas to the Troops

If you haven't already seen it, Uncle Jimbo and Matt at Blackfive, along with Bill Roggio and others put together this great video of bloggers wishing the troops a Merry Christmas.

Crossposted at Wizbang.

Five Minute Fudge

 

This recipe for Rachel Ray's five minute fudge makes a fudge wreath ideal to serve at a party or to give  as a gift. Check out Ray's variations (listed at the end of the recipe) or create your own.  My mom got this recipe (or one incredibly similar) from a friend many years ago and used to make this fudge with white chocolate chips, pecans and chopped cherries.

I've posted this recipe the past couple of years and have tried several variations.  One that I found yummiest was made using one bag of Nestle's white chocolate chips and one bag of Nestle's "swirls" chips (the white and milk chocolate swirls).  It makes a light brown fudge with a really unique flavor.  I haven't made any this year (I made the old time fudge this year with the candy thermometer), but my aunt made several and they were a big hit. This really is super, super easy and something you could definitely still do before Christmas.  Enjoy!

Update:  Here is a recipe for date balls and a funny story about my daughter from last Christmas.

 

This recipe for Rachel Ray's five minute fudge makes a fudge wreath ideal to serve at a party or to give  as a gift. Check out Ray's variations (listed at the end of the recipe) or create your own.  My mom got this recipe (or one incredibly similar) from a friend many years ago and used to make this fudge with white chocolate chips, pecans and chopped cherries.

I've posted this recipe the past couple of years and have tried several variations.  One that I found yummiest was made using one bag of Nestle's white chocolate chips and one bag of Nestle's "swirls" chips (the white and milk chocolate swirls).  It makes a light brown fudge with a really unique flavor.  I haven't made any this year (I made the old time fudge this year with the candy thermometer), but my aunt made several and they were a big hit. This really is super, super easy and something you could definitely still do before Christmas.  Enjoy!

Update:  Here is a recipe for date balls and a funny story about my daughter from last Christmas.

 

Christmas at Arlington

Andrea Shea King has a moving post at Radio Patriot about the experience of laying wreaths at Arlington Cemetary. She has posted many beautiful pictures as well.

Update: Here is an earlier post about Christmas at Arlington with a beautiful snow picture.

Gratitude

Lucianne linked to this great site today saying "Sometimes things are so simple they don't have to be explained.  Try this.  It's not hard."  On more than one occasion I have tried to say thank you to soldiers and Marines I have seen while shopping or at the airport and each time have gotten a lump in my throat and completely teared up.  I recently attended a blog conference for military spouses and found myself again having trouble saying thank you without losing it.  I just feel like my "thank you" is so incredibly inadequate.  Thankfully I can type just fine with tears in my eyes and a lump in my throat.